The persisting cyclonic circulation became more organized and a low-pressure area has formed over South Andaman Sea and adjoining Southeast Bay of Bengal. This is likely to become well marked in the next 24 hours and may intensify further subsequently. The environmental conditions seem iffy in the area and are not pointing anything conclusive at this stage. The weather models are varied with respect to further intensification and the timelines.
The low-pressure area is likely to move northwestward, albeit bit sluggish and slow on intensification. The primary requirement of gaining latitude, a prerequisite for strengthening is not being captured, at least in the next 48 hours. The SST (Sea Surface Temperature) and VWS (Vertical Wind Shear) remaining favorable for further development, the system's dynamics need to fill in the cracks to sustain growth. The complete area of influence needs to keep under surveillance and currently graded as susceptible to the formation of the first cyclone of the season.
The presence of a convective cloud cluster in association with the low pressure over the Andaman Sea will cause heavy rainfall and strong winds over the chain of islands in that area. The vast stretch of ocean between the low pressure and Indian coastline is filled with enormous heat potential and is capable of bringing rapid developments. It is a fingers-crossed situation and should not amount to lowering the guard.